Documentation of the Anticipation
Practice/Method
Documentation of the Anticipation
Practice/Method
Key words: Scenario, dramatic, futures, interaction, rural
futures
1. Anticipation Method
DRAMATIC SCENARIO
2. Developers of the Practice/Method
Vuokko Jarva, DrSocSc
3. Background and Framework of the Method
Dramatic scenario belongs to the family of qualitative methods of futures research, to be more exact, to the family of qualitative scenarios. With the help of the method it is possible to create crosscut -scenarios describing a state of society or part of it at defined moment in futures history. The more sophisticated use is to create path-scenarios, descriptions of possible paths to the defined end states.
The German historian Reinhardt Koselleck (1985) has studied the concepts of the closed and open future, seeing them in terms of the concepts of experience and expectation. Experience is in his terms the present past, the events of which have been organised into a whole, and which can be remembered. Expectation is a future made present, which is directed towards the yet-not-existing, yet-not-experienced, which will be unveiled. (Koselleck 1985, 272). In these terms, the concept of the future based on experience means that the future is predictable and closed, because it is a direct continuation of the past.
The expectation-based concept of the future is open where expectations diverge from experience, no longer being limited by it. According to Koselleck, the concept of possible futures is based on this distinction.
If the future is considered as open, expectations become crucial. This is actually the core of modern futures research.. This view has been widely accepted in modern futures research (see e.g. Malaska 1993, Niiniluoto 1993, Riihinen 1992, Bell 1996)
The phenomena, which create the open future are the events and action. The idea of the human as active subject who is able to influence future through planning, decisions and action and not simply adjust to the predetermined future has been accepted widely in futures research . (Lappalainen 1995, Niiniluoto 1993, Arendt 1961, Sandberg 1975, Leontjev 1977, von Wright 1971, Jarva 1984).
Action implies that humans have intentions and goals. If the human is considered capable of influencing the future, it does not mean that there would be complete freedom of choice. There are limitations which cannot be overcome, conflicting interests and unexpected developments.
The Dramatic Actor. The implementation of a human being as actor, agent, is here accepted in the form presented by Roll May, who indicates, that a human being can alter from the state of being an object to the state of being a subject and vice versa. This is a decision to be made. The Berlin argument about "freedom from" and "freedom for" is as well taken in attention, in decision making the "freedom for" aspect is necessarily o (Berlin 1958).To emphasise the subject character of the agents, the literary form chosen is drama and not epic or lyric. (May 1980, May 1986, Burke 1945, Staiger 1946, Andrew 1976)
Intention. In the theory of action a human being is supposed to have intentions, to direct the action towards a more or less conscious goal. Actually behaviour, which has no intention is not called action at all in the theory (Leontjev 1977). To reach intended goal, agents use different means (agency). In this sense the method has some characteristics of the hierarchic analysis of goals and means, known from the theory of planning (see. e.g. Uusitalo 1974).
The substance (the content) of the method is based on one hand in the theory of modern futures research as well as social sciences and on the other hand on the theory of action. The application (the form) of the method is based on one hand on the theory of scenario method in futures research and on the other on the theory of drama and film manuscript.
4. Use of the Method
Target and results of the method
Eleonora Masini (1993) points out that the function of futures research is not in its relation to the future, but in its relation to present human action. Action is always future-oriented and that is why our expectation, futures images and futures visions have their present relevance in the way of thinking, perceiving, understanding and making choices, decisions. The target of the method is to help the decision maker by:
- giving a vivid, synoptic picture of the possible futures and the paths leading to each of them resulting of the actions of main actors,
- uncover the process of conflicting interests of the actors and their potential results in the futures policy,
- give a solid basis for evaluation of strategies and action programs.
The end products of the method in a complete process are futures
scenarios consisting of crosscut scenarios and path scenarios.
The results in decision making depend on the quality of the end
products, their application by the decision makers, decision makersí
competence in decision making and the timing in relation to political
processes going on at the decision making moment.
Utilisation
The utilisation of the method is a learning process where
it is suggested that the specialists working with the method,
the decision makers and the practical users participate. The content
of the learning is to create new visions of the possible futures
alternatives and the results of different strategies and actions
of the main actors, give more realistic ground for decision making
and its traps.
Because of its general character and basic simplicity, the method
is applicable on all levels and branches of societal decision
making. In the case of the ESR-project it was implemented in rural
futures area in purpose to give more solid basis for educational
planning as part of the employment programs.
Dissemination of the method
The methods and its applications have been published in several publications, see paragraph 9.2. It has also been used in adult education as educational method.
5. Users of the Method
The method has been used by now by educational authorities in
anticipation of educational futures. The present application “Information
professions of the rural societyì the rural futures report
is now in use on the national level as one guideline of formation
of rural policy.
Utilisers
One of the special characteristics of the method is, that
it is applicable both for common citizens as well as political
and public sector decision makers on any level of the societal
systems. By now the variety of utilises include e.g. rural village
activists, schoolteachers, futures researchers, public sector
decision makers as well professionals and laymen, politicians
and top civil servants.
Expert support required
The main specialist resource needed are substance specialists.
One or two method specialists are needed.
6. Description of the anticipation method
A futures' research method is a tool consisting of operations and rules, with the help of which a futures scenario can be constructed. If in case of real world scientific study a method can be compared with a trap into which the real world is supposed to be captured, in futures' research the method is more like a sculptors chisel with the help of which the form of a virtual future is designed out of the raw material.
To describe a method one has to do it so, that it is possible to apply it without further reading. Thus the description has to include:
- the content and the form of the method,
- how the content is brought into the method,
- the rules of the game or which kind of operations are allowed and how the work phases follow each other and how to construct the final scenarios,
- in this kind of interactive method: how the interaction with
the actual or potential users is initiated.
The content
The work procedure to create the content consists of following phases:
- definition and restriction of the subject area,
- identification of the main outside variables influencing,
- historical analysis of the megatrends of development and policy,
- analysis of the already gained results of the research,
- analysis of ongoing change and developments,
- analysis of constructed forecasts,
- SWOT-diagnosis of the main actors and their strategies in the area,
- construction of the theoretical framework for scenario writing.
The Form of the Method
To describe the form of a method one has to do it so, that it is possible to apply it without further reading. Thus the description has to include:
- how the content is brought into the method,
- the rules of the game or which kind of operations are allowed and how the work phases follow each other and how to construct the final scenario ,
- in this kind of interactive method: how the interaction with the actual or potential users is initiated
Definition of Utilisers and Choice of Language
A method is by definition a means, a tool. In construction of a tool it has to be asked: for which purpose this tool is intended and for which kind of users it is intended. This means that its relation to present real world as well as present worldñview of the user has to be interactive: it has to give some contradictory and additional information, to change the way the situation is seen, not to project the structure of present situation to future like e.g. trends.
To know what kind of scenario writing serves the utiliser in this interactive way, one has to define who is the expected utilisers, the audience of each scenario work process separately. Different audiences have different characteristics as users of tools, the tool has to fit the needs of the utilisers in question. The scenario, resulted from the work has to be understandable and useful to the utilisers in question.
In practice the basic question is to answer to the simple formula of news, formulated in communication science: who is speaking to whom, where, what, in which purpose and with what kind of media (in this case, dramatic scenario )?
Construction of the framework of the series of scenarios
A series of scenarios means thus a set of scenarios having a logical connection with each other and drawn out of one chronotope.
In the definition of the main variables used in construction of the scenarios, Kenneth Burke's division to agent, goal, action, scene and agency is applied. To distinguish between a part of the flow of events, called scene in film theory, Burke's term scene is here replaced by the term stage, to which it refers. (Burke 1945) The term "scene", is replaced here with the term stage. The term "agency" is replaced here with the term actor.
To create futuribles or virtual futures, not forgetting that the result of the work has to be a scenario, the construction has to begin synoptically, to limit the factors and phenomena, which are taken with in the further analysis and synthesis. Burke's five terms give sufficient framework to choose the factors, the application is simply:
- who are the main actors in the future drama?
- which kind of intentions and goals they have?
- which kind of action they take?
- which kind of means, agency they use? and
- which is the supposed to be the stage of the flow of events?
In more restricted problems, like the debt problem, I study at present, I have employed the flowchart method known from computer science. Then has to be remembered that this kind of strictly formal method fits only in problems where the "rules of the game" are considerably exact like e.g. in legislation. (Jarva 1982)
Construction of a Dramatic Scenario
The practical work procedure of dramatic scenario writing is applied from the formalist theory of film as e.g. Eisenstein (see Andrew 1976), Balasz (1961), Andrew (1976) and Vale (1973) have designed it. It follows the syntheticoñanalytical line: to begin with the whole and proceed to details and finally synthesise a whole opus. It is exploratory and innovative, because a scenario is to be created. The work process is divided to each other following phases and continuous phases, which are made either simultaneously with the each other following phases or in-between them. The series of scenarios is usually easiest to construct ñ after having created the chronotope ñ one after another. Her has to be remembered, that the first phase is already done when beginning to work with a single scenario: construction of the future chronotope.
The each other following phases are:
- synopsis,
- extended story,
- scenario,
- series of scenarios, and
- publishing and marketing.
The simultaneous phases are:
- collection of material and information, analysis, and elaboration,
- edition and
- dialogue with subscribers/employers and
utilisers, if possible.
7. Application of the Method
Introduction
There is actually fairly seldom the need to
complete the scenario work into actual scenarios, extended story,
and even synopsis give usually clearly enough the unexpected flow
of action and its influences. In application it is usually even
better that the scenarios are short and draft like, and not burdened
with a heavy burden of details.
Maintenance/Updating
If the method is used in continuous follow up and anticipation
process, the substance is suggested to be updated every three
years.
Hardware/Software needed
No special computer programs needed.
Copyright
Vuokko Jarva, University of Helsinki
Costs
The main cost consists of the wages of one to two researchers, out of which one is a method specialist, and optimally the other a substance specialist. Other costs consist of travels, collection of material, computer elaboration and marketing and printing costs of the reports etc.
8. Assessment of the Method
Positive sides
The main advantage of the method is that with a relative light and cheap application press a realistic overview of the developments in the substance area can be obtained. The other is its flexibility: the application of the method does not presuppose heavy expertise. It has been implemented by common citizens in guidance of a method specialist.
The method gives a coherent tool in all cases where the future
is insecure, the decision makers picture of the substance area
is partial or distracted. That is why it is a useful tool especially
in turbulent and chaotic situations, where the flow of the events
do not follow continuity.
Negative sides
Because of its flexibility and easiness it is as well easy to
implement the method superficially leaving out focal variables,
if the substantial knowledge of the implementers is not of good
quality or if it is implemented by narrow sector specialists.
Price - Quality ratio
The price-quality ratio of the method is at least good, if not excellent, because of the qualitative character of method, which does not employ heavy methodological or expertise tools.
9. Documentation of the Method
Manuals, Computer Programs etc.
A manual is under edition .
Case Studies & Literature
1991 Viestintäkasvatuksen visiot - kasvatusta maailmansuomalaiseksi. (Visions of communication education). Komiteamietintö 1991:12, liite 1.
1991 Naistutkimuksen tulevaisuusvisioita. (Futures visions of womenís research) Naiset - väärinkäytetty luonnonvara, Naistutkimus 4/1991
1992 Dramatic Scenario and Scenaric Analysis - Studies in Applied Futures Research, Futura-moniste 1/92. Tulevaisuudentutkimuksen seura, Helsinki 1992
1993 Skenariikka - vaihtoehtoisten tulevaisuuksien, nykyisyyksien ja menneisyyksien tutkimisen menetelmä. (Scenarics, a method to study alternative futures and pasts). Kirjassa "Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta?". toim. Matti Vapaavuori. Acta Futura Fennica NO 5. Tulevaisuudentutkimuksen seura ja Painatuskeskus. Helsinki 1993. 1993 Yksissä neuvoin - kuluttajan talous- ja velkaneuvonnan työkaluja. Helsinki: Oikeuspoliittinen tutkimuslaitos 118.
1993 Yhteiskuntadiagnostiikka - naisellisen tulevaisuudentutkimuksen työkalu. (Social diagnostics - how to bring the substance in the dramatic scenario method). Kirjassa "Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta?" toim. Matti Vapaavuori. Acta Futura Fennica NO 5. Tulevaisuudentutkimuksen seura ja Painatuskeskus. Helsinki 1993.
1994 Finland, Vuokko Jarva och arbetsgruppen vid Eläintarhan ala-aste, Nordiska skenarier för undervisningen 2000. (Finland, Nordic Scenarios for Education) Nordiska Ministerrådet, Dataprogramgruppen 1994 Finland.12.Undervisningen år 2000: Att bemästra sitt liv och and ändra världen. Vuokko Jarva och arbetsgruppen vid Eläintarhan ala-aste. I Rapporten: Nordiska Scenarier kring undervisningen år 2000. Köbenhavn: Nordiska Ministerr det, Dataprogramgruppen, Rapport nr. 14,1994.
1995 Creating New Directions for Futures Studies. WFSF Futures Bulletin Vol. 21. No.4, December 1995.
1996 Towards Female Futures Studies. Beyond Preventive Research and Corrective Moralism to Enabling Tools Design. In "The Knowledge Base of Futures Research" ed. Rick Slaughter. Melbourne: Futures Studies Centre/DDM Media Group.
1996 Tiukilla kuin Manninen ovenraossa. Lama-arjen kriisit ja selviytyminen tulevaisuusperspektiivissä. Väitöskirja. (Household debt crisis and crisis survival in futures perspective). Acta Futura Fennica No 7, Tulevaisuudentutkimuksen seura, Helsinki 1996.
1997 Kyläsampo-opas. (A guide-book for rural village developers). Helsingin yliopisto, Osuustoimintainstituutti, Julkaisuja N:o. 15.1997 Rural Women's futures and Cooperative Solutions. Proceedings of the XVth World Conference of World Futures Studies Federation, September 1997. (Network publication “The Best of Brisbane Conferenceì 1998).
1997 Skenaarianalyysi (Scenaric analysis). FUTURA 2/97
1998 Murros tietoyhteiskuntaan. (The trnasition to information society) Julkaisussa Maan tiet - maaseudun tiet tietoyhteiskuntaan, Helsingin yliopisto, Osuustoimintainstituutti, Julkaisuja N:o 19. Toimitaneet Vuokko Jarva ja Anna Köppä.
1998 Maaseudun tulevaisuusvaihtoehtoja. (Alternative rural futures). Julkaisussa Maan tiet - maaseudun tiet tietoyhteiskuntaan, Helsingin yliopisto, Osuustoimintainstituutti, Julkaisuja N:o 19. Toimitaneet Vuokko Jarva ja Anna Köppä.
1998 Maan tiet. Maaseudun tiet tietoyhteiskuntaan. (Country roads, The paths of rural areas to information society). Toimittaneet Vuokko Jarva ja Anna Köppä. Osuustoimintaintituutti. Helsingin Yliopisto, Julkaisuja No 19. Helsinki 1998.
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de Jouvenel B, The Art of Conjecture, Basic Books, New York 1967.
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