Documentation of the Anticipation Practice/Method

Key words

delphi-method, forest cluster, forestry, forest industry, wood processing

1. Anticipation Method or Practice

DELPHI-METHOD

2. Developers of the Practice/Method

Delphi is widely used and has broad variety of versions. Knowledge centre programme in forest cluster -project has utilised a version of delphi-method. Contact person: Timo Leinonen, University of Helsinki, Department of Forest Resource Management, e-mail: timo.leinonen@helsinki.fi

3. Background and Framework of the Practice/Method

In project Knowledge centre programme in forest cluster persons working in forest cluster were interviewed. Their experiences and expectations about knowledge centre programme were asked as well as opinions about the further development of Knowledge centre in forestry. The project was financed by Ministry of Labour, Metsämiesten säätiö Foundation and Knowledge centre in forestry.

4. Use of the Practice/Method

Target and Results of the Analysis

To collect knowledge which now is only known by certain persons. The knowledge in based on the experience the persons have reached at their work. The number of persons holding this knowledge is large, geographically and organisationally largely spread and heterogeneous. At the second phase of the project part of the persons interviewed are analysing and further developing the ideas.

Utilisation

Even the group of interviewed persons is heterogeneous certain degree of common background is needed just to ensure the success of the group work in second phase.

Dissemination of the Practice/Method

Delphi-method is easy to disseminate, at least in the European culture. In the project delphi-method is applied in national scale. The method can be as well applied in provincial scale or large companies. For local scale and SMEs other applications may suit better.


5. Users of the Practice/Method

Utilizers

The method can be used in anticipation project where knowledge is collected from a number of persons in different organisations and geographically widely spread. Results may be used in strategic planning.

Expert Support Required

Comprehensive knowledge in the cluster involved is needed. Delphi-method is easy to adapt.

6. Description of the Anticipation Practice/Method

Introduction

The organisation in the cluster to be studied are divided into groups. Every group is given a weight factor (ratio). The total number of persons to be interviewed is divided to the groups according to the weight factors. The number of persons needed for each group is named. In this phase it is important for researchers to know the cluster well. The steering group of the project was used as experts in this phase.

The researcher interview the selected persons. Interviews are mostly done at the offices of interviewed persons. Researcher had a list of questions, but which was used to direct the discussion.

50 % of the persons interviewed are asked for a seminar. In the seminar the summary of interviews is used as a base for a discussion about the development in the cluster. Practical advises for actions to the problems are developed in smaller groups.

Time demanded for the study depend on the number of persons interviewed. The smaller the number of persons, the shorter is study time and less trustworthy are the results. Minimum sensible time for this kind of study is six mounts.

In the department of Forest Resource Management two different kinds of delphi-method are earlier used.

Method Category

An application of delphi-method.

Structure and Contents

First phase is an interview, second phase is an version of brainstorm.

Feedback (from experts, decision makers etc)

Expert have several roles in the project. First experts are needed in the steering group of the project when person to be interviewed are selected. The persons interviewed should be experts in their own branches. Interviews produce data. This date is further processed by the experts in the seminar. At its best the persons in the seminar are also the persons in charge of carrying out the actions suggested in the seminar.

Results

Study not finished yet. The seminar will be held in November 1999.

Reports

Will be reported after the seminar.

7. Application of the Practice/Method

Hardware & Software Needed

Microsoft Excel was used, but is not necessary.

Costs

Travelling costs make an remarkable part of costs, so the number of person interviewed and their location are important factors. At the end of the project more precise information about costs can be get.

8. Assessment of the Practice/Method

Positive sides

Delphi-method can be applied in problems which are unstructured and when knowledge is scarce and conflicting. No special equipment or software is needed.

Negative sides

Delphi-method is highly dependent on the researcher. The displacement of the researcher during the study could cause severe problems. Timing of the study is difficult, because of the large number of contacts and meetings needed.

9. Documentation of the Practice/Method

Literature

Jungk, R. ja Müllert, N. 1987. Tulevaisuusverstaat. Keskinäisen Sivistyksen Seura - Suomen Lataamo.

Kuusi, O. 1994. Delfoi-tekniikka tulevaisuuden tekemisen välineenä. Teoksessa Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta? Toim. Vapaavuori, M. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen seura, Acta Futura Fennica no. 5. VAPK, Helsinki. Sivut 132-140.

Nurmela, J. 1994. Tulevaisuusverstas - tulevaisuuden muovaamisen menetelmä. Teoksessa Miten tutkimme tulevaisuutta? Toim. Vapaavuori, M. Tulevaisuuden tutkimuksen seura, Acta Futura Fennica no. 5. VAPK, Helsinki. Sivut 193-195.